Blog

Research and insights for futures traders.

Philosophy

Track the Market, Trade the Chart

We built a platform to help you read the market better -- not to replace reading the market. Here is why that distinction matters.

Philosophy

Analytics Are Arguments, Not Answers

Your tools should help you build a case for your trade, not make the case for you. The difference changes everything.

Philosophy

Understanding Volatility Ratings: What 1-10 Really Means

Your complete guide to interpreting Curistat volatility ratings, matching strategy to conditions, and sizing positions for each level.

Prop Firms

Why Most Prop Traders Fail (And How to Beat the Odds)

About 70% of funded traders lose their accounts within 3 months. The data shows one factor matters more than anything else.

Philosophy

The Myth of the Perfect Indicator

More indicators do not mean better trading. Here is why simplification beats complexity and what actually moves the needle.

Prop Firms

How Traders Game Prop Firms (And Why They Get Caught)

Sim farming, windfall gambling, churn-and-burn -- the strategies traders use to exploit prop firm rules, and why automated enforcement is catching up.

Prop Firms

The Anatomy of a Prop Firm Account Blowup

One trader, 798 accounts, 47 blown in a single month. A deep dive into how accounts implode and the math behind the spiral.

Prop Firms

Prop Firm Rules You Didn't Know Could Get You Banned

MAE violations, hedging detection, stockpiling evaluations -- the rules most traders miss until enforcement catches them.

Prop Firms

How to Actually Pass a Prop Firm Evaluation

Data-driven strategies from traders who keep their funded accounts. Contract sizing, selectivity, and the math behind sustainable prop trading.

Philosophy

Why We Predict Volatility, Not Direction

Direction prediction is a coin flip. Volatility prediction is statistically tractable. Here is why we chose the harder but more honest path.

Research

Volatility Clustering: The Most Reliable Pattern in Markets

Large moves follow large moves. Small moves follow small moves. How we exploit this for daily forecasting.

Prop Firms

The Math Behind Prop Firm Expected Value

Monte Carlo analysis of 9 prop firms. Which evaluation rules actually give you the best odds? The answer might surprise you.

Signals

VIX Term Structure: Your Free Edge

Contango vs backwardation is the single most underused signal by retail futures traders. Here is how to read it.

Research

How CPI, FOMC, and NFP Actually Move Futures

We analyzed 10 years of economic events. Here is the real impact, measured in points, with confidence intervals.

Strategy

Position Sizing with Volatility Forecasts

A Rating 3 day and a Rating 8 day require completely different position sizes. Here is the framework.

Research

Regime Detection for Practical Traders

Regime detection, change-point analysis, and complexity measures -- translated from academic jargon into actionable trading context.

Strategy

The Overnight Session Edge Nobody Talks About

ETH ranges, gap fills, and support/resistance levels that carry into RTH. Data-driven analysis of the 6 PM - 9:30 AM window.

Signals

Mean Reversion Signals That Actually Work

RSI(2), IBS, consecutive days, and Turnaround Tuesday. Documented win rates with 10 years of data.

Research

When CTAs Flip: 40-60 Points in a Day

How systematic trend-followers create forced buying and selling flows, and why you should care.

Prop Firms

Risk of Ruin: The Number Every Trader Should Know

Your win rate and risk/reward determine your survival probability. We built a calculator so you can see yours.

Behind the Scenes

Building Curistat: Technical Architecture

57 features, 10 years of minute data, rolling cross-validation. A peek behind the curtain at our data pipeline.